Trend¶

There are three built-in trend functions

• piecewise linear

• piecewise logistic growth, and

• flat

force trend growth rate to be flat¶

m = Prophet(growth='flat')

Saturating Forecast using logistic growth trend model¶

https://facebook.github.io/prophet/docs/saturating_forecasts.html#forecasting-growth

By default, Prophet uses a linear model for its forecast. Prophet allows you to make forecasts using a logistic growth trend model:

• cap and floor columns can be used to bound the trend.

• cap or floor must be specified for every row in the dataframe, and that it does not have to be constant.

example

# fit model
df['cap'] = 8.5
m = Prophet(growth='logistic')
m.fit(df)

# predict
future = m.make_future_dataframe(periods=1826)
future['cap'] = 8.5
forecast = m.predict(future)
fig = m.plot(forecast)